REPOSTING: "Three Steps to War?"

25 Shevat 5784

Originally written 7 weeks prior to the Hamas Invasion and Massacre on Simchat Torah...
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3 Elul 5783 

As events progress, the possibilities come more clearly into view.  My basic assessment about a multi-front messianic war remains the same, but it appears from reports that two related things may come about first.  Keep in mind that the stories I am linking to are "trial balloons" meant to either influence the public, like to prepare them for what is to come so as to lessen opposition, or to gauge public reaction in advance of a planned campaign, or both.

Working backwards from the war scenario...

• Why would Hezbollah, Hamas, PIJ, Fatah et al. go to war with Israel? 
• Assuming it is on orders from Iran, why does Iran feel the need to launch a multi-front war on Israel?
• Assuming it is because they want to pre-empt or respond to an attack by Israel, what has changed to make Netanyahu feel he is free to attack Iran?
• Assuming the US has sanctioned an Israeli attack on Iran, how was their support bought?
• Assuming the US made a deal in exchange for Israeli concessions to Saudi Arabia, how does Netanyahu get his right-wing government to go along with it?  Answer:  He can't.  So the current government has to be changed.

Opposition MK floats unity government in which Netanyahu resigns after 2 years

National Unity party MK Matan Kahana joins calls for a unity government, suggesting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu serve for two years and then resign ahead of a new election.

Modestly referring to his proposal as the “Kahana plan to save the State of Israel from crisis,” the MK says that National Unity and Yesh Atid would join the Likud-led government with “anyone else who accept values in the spirit of the Declaration of Independence.” Two years from now, he says, Netanyahu would “retire to his home in dignity” and a new election would be held.

Opposition MK calls for unity government with Netanyahu, others voice support

“Do you really think there is a better solution to the deep crisis the country is in now?” the former religious affairs minister wrote, “Such a government will be able to heal the deep internal divide between us and will give space to all parts of society in Israel, will reunify the military and deal with the increasing external threats around us, would be able to formulate a constitution, or at the very least enact a set of Basic Laws that would better balance the balance of power between the government authorities, will bring peace with Saudi Arabia, and will restore the economy and restore the confidence of the world markets in the Israeli miracle. Such a government will bring the peace we all long for.”

He added that he knows National Unity head Benny Gantz well, and that “he has already proven in the past, for him Israel really comes first,” expressing his confidence in the party leader to join such a government, despite previous refusals.

...The proposals for a unity government initially came on the heels of a column by New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman, who in his writings on potential peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia suggested that US President Joe Biden may require Netanyahu to drop his coalition partners - Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism Party and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit Party - and replace it with National Unity and Yesh Atid.

...If successful, the plan would not need the support of any other parties in the Knesset. The Likud’s majority seats, 32, combined with National Unity, 12, and Yesh Atid, 24, would be enough to form a majority in parliament.

It appears to me as if the order has already been given.  Now they just have to get the Israeli public used to the idea.  

Keep in mind also that the only reason Biden is on board is because of China's involvement.  The Saudis, under constant attack by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen got tired of waiting for the US/Israel attack on Iran to solve their problems for them, so they responded favorably to a Chinese initiative to restore diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  Now, Biden has not only lost an important US ally, but to add insult to injury, his nemesis in China is reaping the spoils.  

Saudi-Iran Deal: A Test Case of China’s Role as an International Mediator 

What are the Limits of Iran-Saudi détente?

Iran and Saudi Arabia Battle for Supremacy in the Middle East

Four years ago: Saudi Arabia and Israel Are Pushing US to Confront Iran

Twelve years ago:  Saudi Arabia urges US attack on Iran to stop nuclear programme

So, what has changed?  Why now?  What's in it for each of the participating parties?

The US wants to reassert its influence in the Middle East and push China back.  Saudi Arabia knows there's an expiration date on the deal with Iran.  They've gotten together and broken up a couple of times before.  It was not their preference.  Saudi Arabia would much rather have Iran removed as a competitor to rule over the Muslim world and in addition to that, having control of the Temple Mount would solidify their position as caretaker of the holy places and strengthen MBS with his own people.  Israel would be "normalized" then across the entire Arab world.  The threat from Iranian-supplied missiles and rockets would be eliminated.  All that would be left for Israel to do is agree to implement the "Two-State solution" to the Palestinian problem.

Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister to visit U.S. over Saudi deal

(See also - Israel: The Iran Threat and Options, August 1, 2023)

Of course, none of this will go down as anticipated or planned because the US and its proxy, the Erev Rav regime, are going to lose and MBY is going to ascend to power in Israel and cancel any agreement with Saudi Arabia for the Temple Mount.  HKB"H is going to see to that.  And that's when we will know who Mashiach is, when he takes charge of the government in the wake of the "emergency unity" regime's massive failures.

PS:  That's not to say that HKB"H will not "inspire" Iran and its proxies to act earlier, before all this can be arranged.  Even though it is clear they have formulated a plan whereby everybody can "benefit" from a deal, there is literally nothing standing in the way of missiles being launched at Israel right this very minute.  The only real question here is...  will Iran wait?  That's also up to HKB"H.  Though I think it makes sense that He wants the religious Jews to once and for all be disabused of any fondness for the State, the Army and the Democratic process.