"Eisav Soneh l'Ya'aqov"

25 Marcheshvan 5786

Here we are at the beginning of the week of parashat Toldot - the introduction to Eisav and Ya'aqov.  The treachery of "brother" Eisav, which never dies from generation to generation, is on full display this morning... 

Trump to Establish 'Palestinian' State

...on Friday night, as Israelis were making Kiddush, the US officially and explicitly announced that the goal of its Gaza plan, expected to pass the Security Council this week, is the establishment of a Palestinian state. The US, Qatar, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Jordan and Turkey issued a joint statement through the US mission to the UN declaring that they were publishing this statement as member states convening at senior levels to launch a process offering a path to Palestinian self-determination and statehood. That was written clearly in the opening paragraph.

What was Netanyahu's response to this statement? Silence. Israel is not only failing to fight the move as it did recently but is acquiescing through inaction. Some right-wing ministers, including from Likud, repeated their opposition to a Palestinian state. But the official decision-maker, the prime minister, has remained silent. And worse, even if he objects, it appears he cannot stop what is taking shape.

...It has to be read to be believed. Not France, not Britain and not Canada, but the US itself is not only refusing to veto a Security Council resolution calling for the creation of a Palestinian state but is leading the effort. This alone is a major diplomatic blow.

For comparison, even UN Security Council Resolution 2334, which former president Barack Obama allowed to pass in the final weeks of his term in 2016, did not call for establishing such a state. Netanyahu erupted at the time, and justifiably. And today? Nothing.

...The bottom line is clear and grim. The Security Council resolution that will close the war in Gaza does not condemn the mass murder the Palestinians carried out against Jews on Oct. 7, 2023. Instead, it does the opposite. It rewards the killers with a pathway to a state. Just as serious, the one leading this resolution is Donald Trump, the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House, who is doing so with the consent of his close friend, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. There is only one word for this humiliating outcome: collapse.    (Source)

Trump to Sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia 

Two data points could signal a geopolitical and security earthquake in the Middle East.

The Pentagon has given a preliminary nod to selling F-35s to Saudi Arabia, and the Trump administration may carry out this deal without conditioning it on normalization between Riyadh and Jerusalem.

...The F-35 is the world’s premier aircraft with stealth capabilities that can run circles around most countries’ air defenses. Most importantly, it allows Israel to run circles around Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas’s air defenses. 

...It is the tip of the spear for Israel’s maintaining of its “qualitative advantage” over its adversaries, though they far outnumber the Jewish state’s population and surround Israel on several fronts.

...[The Saudis] have also flirted with alliances with Russia and China, and have signed deals with Iran, which, however unlikely, could also have led to alliances.

If Riyadh gets the F-35 and shares the technology with Russia, China, or Iran, Israel’s qualitative edge over Tehran could be compromised, and it could also face other issues with Beijing and Moscow, which currently have a deep respect for Israel’s military.

This came up in 2020 when the US almost sold the F-35 to the UAE at the height of the wave of the Abraham Accords.

At the time, it seemed like the Israeli political echelon was reluctantly not publicly objecting, but top defense officials were very concerned about the move and breathed a sigh of relief when it fell through due to a variety of other issues.

But one of the reasons that Israel was somewhat ready to swallow the UAE receiving the F-35 was that the UAE had crossed the Rubicon and normalized ties with Jerusalem.

In other words, Israel got a major strategic win, and so it was willing to keep its mouth shut about a potential strategic problem.

Further, the very fact that the UAE normalized relations with Israel in some ways made it less likely, though not impossible, that it would pass on the sensitive F-35 technology to Israeli adversaries.

Here, the Trump administration may finalize the sale to the Saudis without any commitment to normalization.    (Source)

See also: US said considering forgoing Hamas disarmament to begin reconstruction, as talks stall

Israeli TV says Trump team pushing ‘interim solutions, unacceptable to Israel’; ahead of imminent UN vote, Israel said readying for deployment of foreign troops; PM speaks to Putin