07 February 2012

Fallout from Iran

14 Shevat 5772

Please excuse the pun. I couldn't resist. Of course, I'm talking about political, economic and social fallout, not the atomic kind, though that might possibly figure in, too.

I heard a rabbi say today that it's not a question of 'if' there will be war with Iran, but 'when.' It could be hours (hearing an awful lot of jet activity overhead in Jerusalem), days or weeks, but probably not more than that.

Everyone, no matter where they are, will have 'fallout' to deal with. This is the time to anticipate and formulate a plan to deal with it.

Since the next largest Jewish commmunity outside of Eretz Yisrael is in America, we'll deal with that first. The American economy will totally collapse in a war with Iran. America has been weakened by ten years of war in Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen and at times Pakistan and Nigeria and a massive and ever-growing debt load. And none of these foes is in the same league with Iran, a much more technologically advanced and richer country, who possibly already has the means to build (and launch) four atomic bombs.

This fact, along with the human suffering it will bring in its wake, added to the suspicion that the war is "For Israel's Sake," will incite Jew-hatred, the likes which my generation and those after it have never experienced.

And this does not take into account the possibilities of body bags returning from Iran or consequences from any domestic attacks. It doesn't take into account the possibility of resulting food and fuel shortages either.

Whatever goes for America, goes for Europe as well.

If history is any example, I expect that the destructiveness of the antisemitic tsunami will be directly proportional to the extent to which Jews feel comfortable and at home in their host countries. Antisemitism has always been most virulent where Jews were most assimilated. It is after all, Hashem's antidote to assimilation, so it stands to reason.

The reaction in Muslim countries will depend on how much damage is inflicted on their brothers. Massive suffering in the West will be a cause for joy for them, but if either Israel or America lets loose nukes on any Muslim territory, look out!

In Eretz Yisrael, I've no doubt we will come under missile barrage. Our neighbors do not have 200,000 of them aimed at us just for show. However, there is no reason not to think that it will turn out just as it did during the Gulf War when Saddam Hussein hit us with 39 scuds. Not one Jew was directly killed by it. It might even be helpful if it causes all the foreigners to flee for their lives. This is Hashem's home on earth and the majority of His children have joined Him here. There is no reason not to believe that He will provide for every need just as he does every single day.

When you are far from home, it can be a very perilous journey back. But if you are already home, the only thing to do is go inside and close the door and wait for the fury to pass. (Yeshayahu 26:20)