13 July 2014

My Ceasefire Plan

15 Tamuz 5774

Face it. The Erev Rav regime will NOT eradicate Hamas, because to do so would mean re-conquering Aza and they have stated categorically that they refuse to do so. Therefore, if there is no intent to win this thing, why send in ground troops? Why risk the lives of our soldiers needlessly?

One day, we will have a leader and an army and a government who WILL defeat the enemy - when Mashiach comes. But, until then, it looks like there will be another "ceasefire."

Cease-fire? Tending Toward the Qatari Proposal

Reports of ceasefire formula emerge as Gaza hostilities continue

UN security council calls for Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire
...While Israel vowed to press forward with its five-day-old campaign, it found itself facing growing international calls to stop. In New York, the UN security council unanimously called for a ceasefire, while Britain's foreign minister, William Hague, said he would be discussing ceasefire efforts with his American, French and German counterparts on Sunday.

...An Israeli official said the goal of the operation is to restore quiet to Israel for a continuous period. "This goal will be achieved whether it is done militarily or diplomatically. Israel will consider any suggestion that will bring the accomplishment of this goal," the official said.

All the while that rockets are shooting and bombs are dropping, the "ceasefire" is being negotiated. I would not be surprised if one wasn't announced over the next twenty-four hours. With that in mind, I'll play diplomat, though it goes against my nature, and present a win-win-win proposition for a Hamas-US-Israel ceasefire plan. 

Let's start with the main negotiator. Since the US admittedly is funding the production of Iron Dome weaponry, I'd say they hold the highest set of cards in this game. The US President has already offered to be the one to broker the deal, although many other governments and world bodies are weighing in. Suppose they convince Israel to make good on their agreement to finish the final prisoner exchange, with the US agreeing to throw in Pollard, also as previously agreed? Israel will also have to forward the withheld tax monies which are needed to pay overdue salaries in Aza

This would be a big win for Hamas, after the devastating blow to their infrastructure in YoSh. What a happy ending to Ramadan - released terrorist prisoners embraced by family, salaries bringing in money to spend for the holiday. And let's not forget the glory of seeing Israelis run for cover from Hamas missiles or the vision of the gas truck going up in flames in Ashdod - stories of bravery to be retold around the iftar table, even if it is sitting in the midst of concrete rubble.

It would also be a win for Netanyahu. He could claim, yet again, that he has dealt a severe blow to Hamas without having to commit ground troops to the effort and he will assure the populace of a "long period of quiet" until Hamas will rebuild its arsenal, yet again, or until a more radical group takes power there. He will claim victory for dealing a lethal blow to Hamas on "The West Bank" and of breaking up the PA/Hamas unity government, forcing Abbas, yet again to deal with Netanyahu on his terms. And let's not forget the 'piece de resistance' - finally, finally, finally the release of Jonathan Pollard which will overshadow everything else. Surely Netanyahu will be forgiven anything and everything if he can just pull that off.

Finally, it would be a big win for Obama - almost as if he were still the premiere leader of the free world. He will be able to take credit for bringing about the ceasefire of a conflict which the world is very afraid will run away like a wildfire and ignite the entire middle east. And make no mistake, he will most certainly announce a "resumption of peace talks," dates to be determined soon. If staged correctly, it could be worth a few points in the polls, until his nest gaffe or his next power-play, depending on which comes first.

See, everybody wins this way. It's the best we can hope for - until Mashiach comes. ;-)

5 comments:

  1. Devash, I think this is the BIG WAR we don't want but need to fight, to bring Moshiach.

    I think Hamas is not stopping because they are waiting for other factions to join in, i.e., ISIS/Al Qaeda in Sinai, Hezbollah in the North, and ISIS/Iran from Jordan. Maybe not so soon, but perhaps eventually.

    An excellent discussion of this is with Malcolm Hoenlein and John Batchelor, July 10, 2nd and 3rd hours.Hoenlein/Batchelor

    However, time will tell. Now I'll finish your long article.

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  2. Here's my latest contribution, War Widens

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  3. I wouldn't want to speculate further than the ceasefire at this point, but suffice it to say - it probably won't last as it takes the ink to dry on the signatures; just long enough to make everyone think they got what they wanted. Then the boom will fall as someone stronger than Hamas is waiting in the wings.

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  4. Report: 15:38: 288,000 liters of fuel brought into Gaza. 15:11: Israel permits supplies to continue flowing to Gaza. 59 truckloads crossed into Gaza this morning, the IDF Spokesman reports.

    The government simply is not in this to "win." All I keep hearing is that they want to buy another long period of quiet. For this, it's not worth launching a ground war.

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  5. Kerry: US Still Ready to Broker Gaza Truce


    Secretary of State John Kerry of the United States phoned Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Sunday to renew a US offer to help mediate a truce between Israel and the Hamas faction in the Palestinian Authority government, according to Agence France Presse.

    Kerry "highlighted the US concern about escalating tensions on the ground," said a senior State Department official. The top US diplomat also told the Israeli leader that he was engaged with regional leaders "to help to stop the rocket fire so calm can be restored and civilian casualties prevented."

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